Samaje Perine Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+242/-387).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -364 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -387.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the end zone this week (71.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.1% red zone run rate.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least TDs in football (0.55 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 7th-best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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