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Samaje Perine

Samaje Perine Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Samaje Perine Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Samaje Perine has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this season (5.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.5%).

Samaje Perine's 1.6 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a material reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 2.9 figure.

Samaje Perine's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 94.4% to 86.0%.

The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.5%) vs. running backs this year (79.5%).

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