Samaje Perine Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+162).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Samaje Perine has been more prominently featured in his team's passing attack.
Samaje Perine grades out as one of the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging a stellar 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Samaje Perine's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 81.4% to 91.4%.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.

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