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Samaje Perine

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Samaje Perine has totaled a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

Samaje Perine has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this year (5.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.5%).

Samaje Perine's 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates an impressive regression in his receiving ability over last season's 27.0 mark.

Samaje Perine's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 94.4% to 86.0%.

This year, the formidable Eagles defense has surrendered a meager 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 4th-fewest in football.

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