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Samaje Perine

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

When talking about air yards, Samaje Perine grades out in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a superb 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Samaje Perine has been a much smaller part of his team's pass game this season (5.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (11.4%).

Samaje Perine has compiled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).

Samaje Perine's 82.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 94.4% figure.

This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the best rate in football.

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