Samaje Perine Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Samaje Perine to total 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Samaje Perine's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 12.2.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.
Samaje Perine has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

Favors Under

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.