Samaje Perine Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to accrue 2.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
Samaje Perine has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 8.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Samaje Perine has been among the top pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 18.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Samaje Perine has been among the top RBs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 8.45 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 78th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the most receiving yards per game in the league (46.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Samaje Perine has notched a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 20th percentile among RBs.

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