Samaje Perine Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Samaje Perine has accumulated a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Samaje Perine's pass-catching efficiency has gotten better this year, totaling 7.88 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.69 rate last year.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed bad efficiency vs. running backs this year, yielding 6.72 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 31.0) to running backs since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.