Samaje Perine Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to accumulate 15.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (69.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 7th-best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.