Samaje Perine Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to accumulate 13.4 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (57.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.9% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.