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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Detroit Lions to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

In this week's contest, Sam LaPorta is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.

While Sam LaPorta has garnered 11.2% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Detroit's pass game in this game at 17.8%.

Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 71.7% to 96.5%.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (80.4%) versus TEs this year (80.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.

Sam LaPorta's receiving talent has worsened this year, averaging a mere 2.9 adjusted receptions compared to 5.0 last year.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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