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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 129.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.6 plays per game.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.0 targets.

Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 71.7% to 77.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a big 8.5-point favorite this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: fewest in the league.

Sam LaPorta's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 47.3.

Sam LaPorta's receiving talent has tailed off this year, accumulating just 3.8 adjusted receptions vs 5.0 last year.

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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