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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.

In this week's contest, Sam LaPorta is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets.

Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 71.7% to 75.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.2 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league.

Sam LaPorta's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 45.9.

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