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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-168/+128).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets.

Sam LaPorta's 75.4% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a meaningful boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 71.7% rate.

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Chicago's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Sam LaPorta's 34.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 45.9.

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