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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-174/+126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this game, Sam LaPorta is expected by the model to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.

Sam LaPorta's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 71.7% to 76.8%.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.6% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

Sam LaPorta's 32.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 45.9.

Sam LaPorta's receiving talent has tailed off this season, averaging just 3.0 adjusted catches vs 5.0 last season.

This year, the tough Buffalo Bills defense has conceded a puny 72.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.

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