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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Detroit Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.3 targets.

Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 71.7% to 78.3%.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (83.7%) vs. tight ends this year (83.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

Sam LaPorta's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 45.9.

Sam LaPorta's 2.8 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a meaningful regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 5.0 rate.

The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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