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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

In this contest, Sam LaPorta is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.

Sam LaPorta's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 71.7% to 80.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.

Sam LaPorta's 29.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 45.9.

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