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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 66.4 total plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to garner 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Sam LaPorta's 84.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a substantial gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 71.7% rate.

The Colts pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82%) vs. TEs this year (82.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a huge 7-point favorite this week.

The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

Sam LaPorta's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 45.9.

Sam LaPorta's play as a receiver has worsened this year, accumulating a measly 2.8 adjusted catches vs 5.0 last year.

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

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