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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

In this week's contest, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.7 targets.

Sam LaPorta slots into the 96th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a massive 45.9 figure this year.

The Detroit O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.

The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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