Sam LaPorta Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
This week, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by the model to finish in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets.
With a high 21.4% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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