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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.

This week, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by the model to finish in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets.

With a high 21.4% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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