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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 129.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.6 plays per game.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.0 targets.

Sam LaPorta rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 45.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a big 8.5-point favorite this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: fewest in the league.

Sam LaPorta has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (53.0 per game).

Sam LaPorta's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 47.3.

The Commanders defense has yielded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) vs. tight ends this year.

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