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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • In this week's contest, Sam LaPorta is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets.
  • Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 71.7% to 75.1%.
  • Sam LaPorta's pass-game efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 9.39 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.13 mark last season.
  • Sam LaPorta's talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 5.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 3.99 figure last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.2 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • Sam LaPorta has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (36.0 per game) than he did last season (53.0 per game).

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