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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets.

Sam LaPorta's 75.4% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a meaningful boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 71.7% rate.

Sam LaPorta's 9.6 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a substantial boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 7.1 rate.

Sam LaPorta's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 5.98 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.99 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

After totaling 53.0 air yards per game last year, Sam LaPorta has significantly declined this year, currently pacing 37.0 per game.

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

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