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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this game, Sam LaPorta is expected by the model to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.

Sam LaPorta's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 71.7% to 76.8%.

Sam LaPorta's receiving efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 9.70 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 7.13 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.6% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

After accumulating 53.0 air yards per game last year, Sam LaPorta has significantly declined this year, currently boasting 30.0 per game.

Sam LaPorta's 32.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 45.9.

Sam LaPorta has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

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