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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Sam LaPorta is expected by the model to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.
  • Sam LaPorta's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 71.7% to 76.8%.
  • Sam LaPorta's receiving efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 9.70 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 7.13 figure last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.6% pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • After accumulating 53.0 air yards per game last year, Sam LaPorta has significantly declined this year, currently boasting 30.0 per game.
  • Sam LaPorta's 32.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 45.9.
  • Sam LaPorta has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

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