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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

In this contest, Sam LaPorta is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.

Sam LaPorta's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 71.7% to 80.9%.

Sam LaPorta's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 10.76 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.13 figure last season.

Sam LaPorta's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, compiling 6.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.99 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.

After accumulating 53.0 air yards per game last year, Sam LaPorta has seen a big decline this year, currently sitting at 26.0 per game.

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