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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 66.4 total plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to garner 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Sam LaPorta's 84.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a substantial gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 71.7% rate.

Sam LaPorta's 12.1 adjusted yards per target this year signifies an impressive progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 7.1 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a huge 7-point favorite this week.

The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

Sam LaPorta has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (53.0 per game).

Sam LaPorta's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 45.9.

Sam LaPorta's 40.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates an impressive regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 50.0 rate.

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