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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The model projects Sam LaPorta to accumulate 4.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Sam LaPorta's 92.9% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving proficiency over last season's 71.7% rate.

Sam LaPorta's 12.2 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a substantial gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 7.1 figure.

Sam LaPorta's ability to generate extra yardage has been refined this year, averaging 7.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 3.99 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (just 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.

Sam LaPorta's 11.5% Target Share this season indicates a material reduction in his air attack utilization over last season's 20.4% figure.

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