Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to notch 5.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta has been responsible for a whopping 11.1% of his team's air yards this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta has been among the best possession receivers in the league among TEs, catching a terrific 91.7% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in football (59.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.94 seconds per play.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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