Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta has been among the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (72.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Lions have been the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 52.4% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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