Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
This week, Sam LaPorta is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.8 targets.
As it relates to air yards, Sam LaPorta grades out in the towering 96th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a remarkable 53.0 per game.
Sam LaPorta slots into the 97th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a superb 48.4 figure this year.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.11 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.

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