Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to earn 7.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Sam LaPorta has accrued a staggering 51.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.4% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.
Sam LaPorta checks in as one of the bottom tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.1%) versus tight ends this year (69.1%).

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