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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.

This week, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by the model to finish in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets.

With a high 21.4% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the bottom tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.

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