Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In racking up a whopping 37.8 pass attempts per game this year, Sam Howell slots in among the top quarterbacks in the league (87th percentile) by this metric.
The Commanders O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New York's CB corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.

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