Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL against the Bears defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
The Chicago Bears defense has been gouged for the 2nd-most passing touchdowns in the league: 2.50 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
In this week's contest, Sam Howell is anticipated by the projections to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.0.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

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