Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to pass on 66.2% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (61.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
This week, Sam Howell is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.7.
The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 8th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
This year, the imposing Rams defense has surrendered a puny 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-best rate in the league.

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