Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their plays: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this game, Sam Howell is projected by the projection model to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.5.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.1 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Cowboys defense has surrendered a feeble 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Dallas's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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