Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+154/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season (73.9%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the most TDs through the air in the league: 1.71 per game since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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