Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
In this game, Sam Howell is anticipated by the predictive model to earn the 8th-most carries among all QBs with 5.4.
The model projects Sam Howell to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this game (21.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played).
Sam Howell's ground efficiency (6.59 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (86th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).
Sam Howell has been among the best QBs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 5.00 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 34.6% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.