Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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