Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Sam Howell isn't afraid to run the ball himself, comprising 13.9% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among quarterbacks.
With an impressive total of 6.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (89th percentile), Sam Howell has been among the leading rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.
Sam Howell is positioned as one of the best quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 4.68 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to run on 33.8% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Right now, the 8th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
The Los Angeles defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year with their run defense.

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