Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Sam Howell's running efficiency (6.47 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (93rd percentile among quarterbacks).
With a fantastic tally of 4.31 yards-after-contact (97th percentile), Sam Howell places among the leading running QBs in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 32.4% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

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