Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an excellent record of 6.4 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (89th percentile), Sam Howell places among the best rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.
With an outstanding total of 4.00 yards-after-contact (97th percentile), Sam Howell ranks among the best running quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to run on 29.7% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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