Sam Howell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As far as a defense's impact on tempo, at 27.44 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
Sam Howell comes in as one of the leading quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 3.86 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 97th percentile.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Seattle's safety corps has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to run on 35.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The Washington O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.

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