Sam Howell Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 242.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 241.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 242.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Sam Howell has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 248.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
This year, the porous Chicago Bears defense has conceded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a staggering 9.11 yards.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
In this week's contest, Sam Howell is anticipated by the projections to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.0.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

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