Sam Howell Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Completions

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 13.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 38.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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