Sam Ehlinger TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Sam Ehlinger

NFL · Player Props

Sam Ehlinger

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Ehlinger TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+183/-245).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Colts rank as the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 64.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the league vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.2%).
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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