Sam Ehlinger TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Sam Ehlinger

NFL · Player Props

Sam Ehlinger

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Ehlinger TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-235/+175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Colts rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.9% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.70 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to attempt 1.8 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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