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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 138.9 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.

Sam Darnold has been among the best TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 1.95 per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7 points.

The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The Seahawks have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.0 passes this week, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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