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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-182/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -182.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (61.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Vikings.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 132.8 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

With a stellar rate of 2.06 per game (90th percentile), Sam Darnold places among the best TD throwers in the league this year.

The Rams defense has been torched for the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.65 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The model projects Sam Darnold to throw 36.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.

This year, the strong Rams defense has yielded a mere 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in the league.

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