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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

This week, Sam Darnold is expected by our trusted projection set to total the 5th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.5.

With a fantastic rate of 2.13 per game (89th percentile), Sam Darnold places as one of the top touchdown throwers in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Vikings.

The Packers defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.27 per game this year.

The Packers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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